Thursday, May 28, 2009

Range Report: Three Brothers

The Brothers Three went to the DNR Winamac range.

They took with them three US rifle, caliber .30, M-1. Bro the eldest got his from the CMP seven or eight years ago. Bro #4 snagged a couple of CMP Garands just this week, and Bro #3 came along to shoot.



The new ones seem to have had their metal parts refinished; they're a much darker color than the familiar greenish parkerizing of Bro #1's copy (bottom most). The finish on the wood furniture is subtly different also.

Add some of the Greek surplus .30-06 ball CMP is selling these days, and you've got yourself some shootin'





Range Report:

The only real surprise of the day was a malfunction. Yes, we know, Garands are supposed to be in the magical club of Guns That Always Work No Matter What, along with Glocks. Despite this contradiction of The Gun Nut Articles of Faith, one of the new-this-week Garands failed to feed once in about 6 or 8 clips of shooting. It has since repeated this blasphemous behavior, and so will be going back to the CMP for fixery.

We've been doing a lot of .22 and AR shooting lately. Nothing wrong with .22's: in fact, I'd say that shooting a lot of .22 LR is the foundation of improving marksmanship. Nothing wrong with ARs, either: they're relatively inexpensive, amazingly adaptable, and can be quite accurate. But there are some of the visceral pleasures of shooting that .22s and ARs just don't quite satisfy. The heft of walnut and forged steel, the solid kick that says "aren't you glad you aren't downrange?", and above all the lovely booming sound that lets you know you just shot a subtantial bullet at substantial velocity from a Rifle of Substance. Whatever it is that you don't get from shooting .22s and ARs, the M-1 Garand supplies it in abundance.

I don't know when the CMP Garands are going to dry up, but I suspect it will be soon. Don't be caught without one. Go here, meet the requirements, and get your $1000 rifle for $545 while you still can.

A quick word about DNR Winamac. - WOW!. What a great facility. 50, 100, and 200 yard ranges, each protected from the others by berms. No memberships, no range fee. Covered shooting stations. Competent and safe, but non-instrusive range supervision. Nice sidewalks between the shooting stations and the target stands, for those muddy days. Only one caution note: take the bug spray. There are some honkin' big mosquitoes out there. Why can't we get one like this in the middle of the state?

The Greek ammo seems to work just fine. The CMP says it's non-corrosive. It is certainly Berdan primed and doesn't appear to have those annoying primer pocket crimps, so it definitely goes in the "save for reloading" bag. Accuracy seemed quite acceptable: Bro the Eldest was shooting half-dollar sized groups at 100 yards without too much trouble. Bro the Eldest, being a connoisseur of ammo aromatics, finds the nose of this vintage quite appealing.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Another way of looking at debt numbers

Another look at the National Debt



Not a bad way of looking at the acceleration of our debt.

I disagree with this guy for saying he was comfortable with Bush's 64 mph but afraid of Obama's 170. Bush's pace of debt growth had us on track for a complete economic collapse (I'm not talking about the minor recession we're having right now; I'm talking about the looming debt melt down that will make our current troubles look like a hiccup).

Yes, Obama will get us to our date with disaster rather more quickly. I don't find a lot of cause for Republican gloating here, though.

One thing the video does not show is the magnitude of the debt problem, or how it threatens to destroy the US economy and any hope of prosperity for future generations. For a more complete analysis of our looming debt problems, check out the IOUSA web movie (link to the right).

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Here's what I'm talking about

Seems that Florida's Miami-Dade County is the first locality to achieve a dubious distinction: in 2008, more babies in Miami-Dade were delivered by cesarean than vaginally.

It had to happen sooner or later. In 1970, the cesarean delivery rate in the US was around 5%. By 2007, that number had reached 31.8%. If these trends continue, soon the whole US may look like Miami-Dade.

By way of reality check, the World Health Organization targets a cesarean rate of around 5-10% to correspond with optimal maternal-child health, and a 2006 study published in the Lancet suggested that when the cesarean rate exceeds 15%, cesareans are causing more harm than they prevent.

What's driving this change? A number of factors are commonly cited: providers' fear of malpractice litigation, their desire to manage their workloads and hours, cost incentives for hospitals, some women's preference for cesarean delivery, and a recent ACOG opinion supporting a woman's right to choose a cesarean even in the absence of any medical reason for it.

A rising cesarean rate entails higher costs. According to this analysis of 2003 data, a cesarean delivery was about two times the cost of a vaginal delivery. I guarantee you they haven't gotten any cheaper since then, but the relative cost of vaginal vs. c-section probably hasn't changed much.

This is a perfect example of why I say we do not currently have a free market health care system. There's no way, in a free market, that the lower cost option - and the option that's healthier for most women - gets gradually driven out of the market.

It's also a great example of what happens when users are separated from costs. Let's say you were planning to go grocery shopping sometime this weekend. Your grocer comes to you on Thursday and says, "I'm going out of town this weekend. How about I go ahead and sell you some groceries today that could endanger your health, and charge you two times what you'd pay for normal groceries?" I think you'd be looking for a new grocer. However, thousands of women accept precisely the same offer from their obstetricians every day. If they actually had to pay the cost of the cesarean out of their own pockets, I think the picture would be a bit different.

I'm not advocating a pure fee-for-service health care system where everyone pays cash for everything. Even if it would work optimally, you'd never get people on board. Also, I think there are some practical problems. Health care bills are just too big and too unpredictable for most folks to be able to budget for them.

What I am saying is that whatever "reformed" health care system we come up with, it better include some form of cost control incentive that is felt where it counts: with the patient. Right now we as patients have none of the consumer power we have when we shop for all the other goods and services we buy. Instead, we have a system analagous to people making purchasing decisions, the charges for which wind up on someone else's credit card statement. I see little chance of costs coming down in a system that works like this.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Rearranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic

It's a tired cliche for focusing on marginal details in the face of a major catastrophe, but it is oh-so applicable to the Obama Administration's "Health Care Reform" media event yesterday.

To summarize from the most recent blog posting:
1) US health care is extremely expensive - we spend about twice per capita what other developed countries spend
2) US health care is a relatively poor value - we aren't getting results commensurate with what we're spending
3) The combination of rising health care costs and the retirement of 78 million baby boomers will burden the US economy with crippling levels of debt. Health care costs are the most imminent threat to our future prosperity as a nation.

I will at least give credit to the Obama administration for recognizing that controlling health care costs should be a top priority. What came out of the vaunted meeting between health care industry leaders and administration officials, however, could only very optimistically be characterized as a drop in the bucket. The product of this high-level meeting was a pledge to reduce - not the actual cost of health care - but the rate of growth of health care costs - by a barely-detectable 1.5% over the next 10 years.

Obama is often compared to JFK these days. If JFK had the kind of audacity represented by this meeting, he would have set NASA the goal of sending a man up a flight of stairs, and returning him safely to Earth, before the end of the decade.

And how did the health industry leaders say they were going to achieve these underwhelming results? By coordinating care, reducing administrative costs, and focusing on effeciency, quality, and standardization; that's how!

Obviously, this [sacrasm] stunningly bold approach [/sacrasm] isn't going to get us anywhere near the savings we need to preserve the fiscal viability of our nation. Real solutions and meaningful cost control are going to involve real changes, not just re-arranging the deck chairs on a sinking ship. Based on my 13 years of experience in the health care system, here are some of my suggestions for where we're wasting real money, and where real money might be saved.

Inapporpriate Use of Emergency Services

The cost of health care changes depending on where it is delivered. A pregnant woman with a yeast infection can be treated for about $90 in an outpatient clinic. If she goes to a hospital ER or OB triage unit, that same yeast infection could easily cost $2500. People who favor universal health care like to pretend that their plans will drastically reduce such inappropriate use of emergency services. The only reason Ms Smith takes her yeast infection to the ER, they say, is because she has no insurance and therefore can't go to the clinic. If she has insurance, she'll go to the clinic and save the nation $2410.

It's a nice thought, but it totally contradicts my experience working in an OB triage unit. In Indiana we have Medicaid coverage for every pregnant woman and an extensive network of Medicaid clinics in the underserved neighborhoods of Indianapolis. And yet, I still see pregnant women - who have Medicaid coverage for their pregnancies and who are registered in clinics - come in to my OB triage unit with yeast infections every day. Obviously, this is not an issue of access to care.

What does motivate people to go to the clinic instead of the hospital? I'll tell you what motivates our family: multi-tiered copays. If we go to the ER, our copay is $120. If we go to the doctor's office, it's $20. Even more of a motivator: if we go to the ER for a trivial reason, our insurance may not cover it. I'll bet it wouldn't take too many times paying the full $2500 for a yeast infection to learn that lesson in health care economics.

Private insurance has applied similar incentives to encourage patients to choose generic medications instead of expensive new meds still under patent, to see their primary provider first instead of going to a brain surgeon every time they get a headache, and to discourage demanding a CT scan every time someone bumps his head getting out of the car.

Problem is, these motivators haven't been applied to the lower end of the income scale. The pregnant women who come to our OB triage unit don't have to pay any copays at all, and there's no chance of them getting stuck with the bill no matter what happens. They never even see the bill. When we can figure out how to apply cost based incentives to recipients of publicly funded health care (ie, Medicare and Medicaid), we stand to save some real money.

Inability to Cope Appropriately with Death

They say death and taxes are the only things in life that are certain, but we spend ridiculous amounts of money trying to pretend it's only taxes that are inevitable. Terminally ill patients routinely spend their last days in intensive care, where literally tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars are spent to delay death another few days. Right now, the decision to discontinue aggressive death-delaying care rests mostly with the patient's family. Essentially, we keep the patient alive until the family can come to terms with the fact that their loved one is going to die. Then we let him or her die.

Losing a loved one sucks, but losing a loved one on Friday isn't half a million dollars better than losing than losing him or her on Tuesday. This kind of end-of-life care will be completely unsustainable when multiplied by the 78 million baby boomers.

We're treating the wrong patient here: the real patients are the family and the correct diagnosis is anticipatory grief. Instead of spending ten or twenty thousand dollars a day on intensive care, how about bringing in a bereavement counselor?

Unrealistic Appraisal of Risks and the Expectation of Perfection

Imagine there's a story in the news today about a woman from Australia who was killed when a meteorite fell from the sky and hit her on the head. Now imagine that President Obama wants every American to go out and buy a $10,000 helmet to be worn on their heads at all times, as a way of addressing the Death by Meteorite problem.

Believe it or not, this is what we do in health care every day.

Whenever there is a maloccurrence somewhere in the health care world, we resolve to Do Whatever it Takes to Ensure This Never Happens Again. Even when the original event is a freak occurrence that's extremely unlikely to happen again anyway, we institute new routines and procedures to make sure It Never Happens Again. In fact, hospitals employ people whose job is entirely concerned with Never Happens Again issues. There's also a hospital accreditation agency that periodically inspects hospitals to ensure compliance with these routines and procedures, and suggest new and improved ones.

Some of these routines and procedures make sense. One good example is the "Pre-Operative Time Out." This started out as a simple verbal routine between the physician and the nurse, prior to beginning a procedure, to make sure everyone's on the same page about what procedure is being done to what body part of what patient. Makes sense so far, but with all these accreditation agencies and Never Happens Again busybodies running around, it never stops at the Makes Sense So Far point. If a simple verbal procedure is a good idea, then a three page form that has to be countersigned seven times by both the nurse and the physician is even better! If it makes sense to complete a three-page Time Out form before a major surgery, surely it also makes sense to do one every time we place an IV line or break a water bag, right? These Never Happens Again procedures keep growing, adding expense and complexity to everything we do. Never Happens Again has become so complex, in fact, that most health care organizations have entire staffs of "compliance officers" whose full time job it is to prepare for the next accreditation visit.

None of this is done with any sense of proportion, or balancing the expense and complexity of the new procedure versus the likelihood of the bad outcome we're supposedly trying to prevent.

Another great example is performing c-sections on large babies to prevent fetal injuries from stuck shoulders. Stuck shoulders is a complication that affects about 1/3000 deliveries. A small proportion of those cause injury to the baby, and a small proportion of those injuries result in lasting disability. So we're talking about a small proportion of a small proportion of a rare occurrence. Still, many obstetricians recommend cesearean delivery any time a large baby is suspected. The American College of OB-GYN recommends against this, noting that a policy of cesearean delivery for large babies would result in nearly 4,000 cesareans for every one baby saved from injury. Most private OBs ignore this recommendation, because in our health care culture, performing 3,999 unnecessary ceseareans for every one necessary one is a perfectly acceptable ratio.

A Common Thread

You'll notice a common thread running through all of these problems: they all relate to the separation of users from costs.

In every other service we buy, we make rational decisions about value versus cost. Nobody pays a mechanic $10,000 to make a car with a blown engine go around the block one more time. Given the choice between a quite-safe Honda and a slightly-safer Volvo for twice the price, I chose the Honda. Knowing groceries cost more at the all-night convenience store, I try to wait until daylight so I can shop at Costco. If my plumber said "let's go ahead and run a fudgippity test on your drains," I want to know what a fudgippity test is, how much it costs, and what the consequences are of not doing it.

When we purchase health care services, however, we don't ask any of these questions or make any of these evaluations of cost vs. value. One of the reasons we don't is that the costs are essentially invisible to us. A key component of health care reform, particularly if cost control is desired, is to make the patient feel the cost of his or her care. Higher costs have to have some effect on us if we're going to change our behavior to choose lower cost alternatives.

Back to the meeting between Obama and the health industry leaders, then. Why didn't they propose anything along these lines? From Obama's perspective, exposing patients to any kind of negative consequences for costly behavior is going to be very unpopular. Politicians don't like to propose things that won't be popular. And the last thing those health care industry leaders want is a bunch of cost-conscious consumers.

Not quite a baby step

The Annointed One will speak to His people today about health care reform. Reducing the rate of growth of health care spending by 1.5% a year is a far less ambitious goal than what we really need, but at least it identifies the critical goal of health care reform: cost control.

When most people talk about health care reform they focus on side-issues, like government vs. private insurance. Folks, it doesn't matter whether the government takes money out of our paychecks to finance health care, or whether our employers take it out and pay it to a private insuror: no matter how we manage the logistics of payment, we are paying way too much for our health care.

Look at this comparison of health care spending per capita by country. Most developed countries are spending about $2-3,000 per year per citizen for health care. In the US, we're spending about double that. And it's not as if we're getting great value for what we spend, either: it's often stated that the US has "the best health care in the world," but when you compare actual health outcomes (like life expectancy, chronic disease, perinatal mortality), we rank near the bottom of the developed countries. Just one example, this graph shows the US ranking #22 in the world for "healthy years life expectancy" (the average number of active healthy years a baby born this year will live).

So, we're paying Rolls-Royce prices for health care, and getting Yugo quality outcomes. But wait: it gets worse. With the retirement of the baby boomers, annual US health care expenditures are expected to almost double by 2017.

Here is a scary graphic about how rising health care costs will affect financing for Social Security and Medicare:



And and even scarier one about what that will do to our overall national debt:



Containing health care costs, therefore, isn't a "private" vs. "socialized" issue, or just another spending issue for Democrats and Republicans to beat each other about the head with. Rising health care costs are arguably the greatest threat to our future prosperity. If you want your kids and grandkids to have a chance to live a lifestyle comparable to yours, this needs to be your number one issue.

Coming up next: some places to look for cost control in health care.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Nice Quote (h/t to Doug S)

"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles."

Col. Jeff Cooper, The Art of the Rifle

Monday, May 4, 2009

Gardening Day

This is our most ambitious garden year yet. It seems like we add one or two new things each year; a policy that will add up on you.


Here's Byron watering in a tomato plant. The patch behind him mulched with straw is the strawberry patch.


Byron showing off the balance beam practice he has been getting in his tumbling class at the Y. We had to build these raised beds to help the soil drain and to assist with improving our Clay Township soil. We've been topping these beds with manure from the farm, plus our own compost, every Fall. The soil is getting better, bit by bit. On A-mom's advice, we don't till or spade. Her motto is "let the worms do the work." Come to think of it, she might have been referring to us kids. Either way, we have twice as many this year as last year.


In the foreground is the newest - and thus least improved - of the beds. So we're using it for the Iffy Potatoes this year. Behind Adrianna and The Amazing Water Hose Boy is our Asparagus patch. It's in its second year, coming along nicely, but still not ready for serious harvesting yet.


Adrianna planting potatoes. We're not too confident about these because they sprouted prematurely in the bag.

Here's the run down on what we're trying to grow this year:
Tomatoes - a perennial favorite. Nothing like real Hoosier tomatoes. This year we are going back to hybrid Better Boys which have generally been our best producers. We're also doing two Romas for making sun dried tomatoes. Last year we tried a Cherokee Purple, a heirloom variety which didn't produce much quantity for us last year, but makes up for it in quality. Dark red-purple meat, and a sweet, rich, low-acid taste.
Bell Peppers - two red and one purple
Brussels Sprouts
Red Cabbage
Broccoli
Bush Beans
Basil
Carrots
Radishes
Potatoes
Asparagus
Zucchini
Cucumbers

Last year we had major bug issues with the Brussels Sprouts. If you have any ideas how to deal with this, please put them in the comments below.